[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LIBERIAN COAST NEAR 7N12W S
WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 10W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N
BETWEEN 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GULF NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATED BY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE FAR EAST GULF. THIS AIRMASS ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER FAR W CUBA TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 25N E OF 85W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SSE WINDS RANGING FROM 10-20
KT ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO UP TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF
87W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN IN THIS
REGION AS A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF
THIS EVENING... EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE TUE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30
KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER BY TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 21N64W TO 16N68W. A SECOND...WEAKER...PULSE IS
MOVING OVER ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA ANALYZED FROM 19N61W TO 16N64W.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO E OF 68W. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A COMBINATION OF A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET NE OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE TRADES ARE BANKING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER FAR WEST
CUBA TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS OF CUBA N OF 19N E OF 81W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NW ATLC BARELY
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM 32N57W TO
27N62W TO 25N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
SHEARS OUT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 37N40W. HOWEVER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND INTO THE ATLC S OF 21N
BETWEEN 58W-67W FROM A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS MENTIONED IN
CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION. CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FG




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