[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM NRN LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 4N20W
EQ29W CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 45W AND INTO NRN BRAZIL TO
2S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-47W...AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 36W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NWD FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
THE NRN GULF. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS N OF 27N WITH DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE S SUPPORTING THE CLEAR
SKIES. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES JUST N OF THE GULF
COAST SUPPORTING AREAS OF STRONG SHOWERS STILL NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF MOBILE ALABAMA. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS E
BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NRN GULF BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATE MONDAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
IN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BUT DUE TO
THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR ALOFT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
NRN COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING STRONG NE-E TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
4N48W. AT THE SURFACE...AN EQUALLY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE BASIN ANCHORED AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED ABOUT 650 NM E
OF THE WINDWARDS ISLANDS ALONG 14N49W TO 11N51W SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE WRN ATLC TO DRIFT SWD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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