[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 4N23W 2N35W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 45W CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 28W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N TO OVER THE SE CONUS JUST E OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS FLOW
ALOFT IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND MOST OF THE
GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE
FAR SE GULF WATERS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OVER THE W ATLC
AS LOWER PRESSURE OVER SE CONUS AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAIN JUST INLAND FROM OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SE
TEXAS. THE S TO SW SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOWER PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BANK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE NW GULF N OF A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S TO W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS THEN DISSIPATE BY MON. RIDGE WILL
THEN REBUILD TUE AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE AREA SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM
GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 15N73W THEN S TO CENTRAL
PANAMA WHILE THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-22N W OF 80W THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-81W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N WITH
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS
DOMINATING THE TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVER THE ATLC S OF 25N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 29N29W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO S FLORIDA. THIS IS
GIVING THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG 25N WILL SHIFT E TODAY IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH S INTO FAR W ATLC ON MON REACHING FROM
BERMUDA TO DAYTONA BEACH MON NIGHT THEN STALL FROM NEAR 32N55W
TO S FLORIDA LATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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