[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W 5N16W 3N26W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N28W 2N37W TO S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N TO OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS FLOW
ALOFT IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF
WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE FAR SE
GULF WATERS S OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ
MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E TO OVER THE W ATLC AS
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF REGION. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BANK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 23N W OF 90W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP S TO ALONG THE N
COASTAL PLAINS AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE AREA SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM
GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 15N73W THEN S TO CENTRAL
PANAMA WHILE THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N W OF 80W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR S OF 26N. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N29W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO S FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
27N37W TO 24N39W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT E TODAY IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH S INTO FAR W ATLC MON REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO DAYTONA
BEACH MON NIGHT THEN STALL FROM NEAR 32N55W TO S FLORIDA LATE
TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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