[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 07N12W TO 04N20W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL AT 03S41W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 05N-06N BETWEEN 16W-20W...AND FROM
04S-03N BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING UP. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 90W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING CONVECTION. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN
71W-77W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 83W-85W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 60W-62W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUD S OF 17N W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N54W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 28N36W 23N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N29W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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