[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N11W 03N27W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
24W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FOR RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH A
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ALONG 24N FROM THE W ATLC WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DOMINATING. S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF
COAST...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ALONG 30N AND THE IMMEDIATE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM 04N49W W-NW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N73W. SW FLOW ALOFT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH
TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS S OF 19N W OF 77W. WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED EAST-WEST ALONG 24N VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W...LEADING TO A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. WHILE A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA NEAR
32N46W AND TRAILS SW TO 29N56W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO A 1015
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT TRAILS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W.
THE FRONT IS QUICKLY BECOMING MORE AND MORE DIFFUSE AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 25N WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FARTHER
EAST...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N38W TO 29N34W AND IS
ALSO QUICKLY LOSING IDENTITY WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING. THE MAIN
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N27W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO A
1020 MB NEAR 25N54W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 24N AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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