[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-7W. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
30/45 NM OF 3N BETWEEN 21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SW TO W FLOW ALOFT.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE GULF WATERS S
OF 25N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC COVERS THE E GULF
GIVING THE GULF SW TO S SURFACE FLOW BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MAINLY N OF
23N W OF 93W AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 86W-93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. AS THE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE...RETURN FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE S TO SE TOADY. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SUN AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND
DISSIPATES MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
AND GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
LINE FROM HAITI TO CENTRAL PANAMA WHILE THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-86W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF 75W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
TODAY AS THE ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA SHIFTS S. TRADES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN STARTING SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 29N W OF 50W SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N49W TO 29N54W WHERE IT BEGINS
TO DISSIPATE ALONG 28N61W TO 29N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N40W THROUGH A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH LOCATED E OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N67W TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. IN THE E
ATLC IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N34W TO 23N37W
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE
TROUGH AND A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N25W. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO GIVE THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS N BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT E ON SUN IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS SUN NIGHT. FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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