[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 4N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 32W CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER E
BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-6W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM OF 3N
BETWEEN 20W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SW TO W FLOW ALOFT.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE GULF
WATERS S OF 26N. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH LOCATED
BETWEEN S FLORIDA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS GIVING THE GULF SW TO S SURFACE FLOW BANKING SOME LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF
MAINLY N OF 23N W OF 90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO LOUISIANA AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND
DISSIPATES THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
AND GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
LINE FROM HAITI TO CENTRAL PANAMA WHILE THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-85W. EASTERLY
TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY AS THE ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA
SHIFTS S. TRADES WILL INCREASE AGAIN STARTING SUN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 50W SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N51W TO 28N61W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 30N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
E OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE
ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W ALONG 24N51W TO A
WEAK 1016 MB HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN S FLORIDA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS. IN THE E ATLC IS A WEAKENING 1019 MB LOW NEAR
25N35W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 28N33W AND S TO
22N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE BUT CONTINUES TO GIVE THE ATLC MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS N BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT E ON SUN IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS SUN NIGHT. FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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