[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272317
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 06N10W TO 04N20W TO 02N30W
TO 01N40W TO NE BRAZIL AT EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 28W-42W...AND FROM 03S-EQ
BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM N FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS.
PRE-FRONTAL WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 84W-88W. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS WITH A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. THE S GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INHIBITING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT S OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND SPREADING
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 06N74W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 70W-78W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF E PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
60W-62W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD S OF 12N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S OF 12N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1005 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
NEAR 34N70W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO S GEORGIA
NEAR 32N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
30N30W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N50W TO 09N53W MOVING W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT S AND
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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