[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W CONTINUING SW ALONG 5N20W 1N30W 1S40W INTO SOUTH
AMERICA ALONG 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WELL REMOVED S OF THE AXIS FROM 7S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W
AND 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...SUPPORTING A 1019 MB HIGH OFF THE TAMPA BAY AREA
FLORIDA NEAR 27N83W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW ELSEWHERE W OF 85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE I THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES GENERATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF INCREASING
THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THIS SCENARIO IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 14N E OF 65W.
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE ENE
FRESH TO STRONG SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND EASTERN PANAMA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE ATLC IS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N31W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N35W. THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH/LOW MOVES N
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. THEREFORE...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC PROVIDED BY SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE AREA...GIVEN BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
26N74W...ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
28N48W...AND A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 26N25W. OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IN THE W ATLC WILL CROSS OUR 32N BORDERLINE W OF 53W WITH
CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING SEAS
9 TO 13 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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