[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W CONTINUING SW ALONG 5N20W 1N30W 1S40W INTO BRAZIL
ALONG 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL
REMOVED S OF THE AXIS FROM 5S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W AND
27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM S OF THE AXIS
E OF 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NE TO
SW. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW
ELSEWHERE W OF 85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE I
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES GENERATING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF INCREASING THE
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THIS SCENARIO IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 14N E OF 65W.
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE ENE
FRESH TO STRONG SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN
WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND EASTERN PANAMA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE ATLC IS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N29W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N35W. THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH/LOW MOVES N
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. THEREFORE...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC PROVIDED BY SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE AREA...GIVEN BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
26N74W...ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
27N48W...AND A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 27N25W. OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IN THE W ATLC WILL SWING ACROSS OUR 32N BORDERLINE W OF 53W
WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FG



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