[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N10W EQ25W EQ40W 2S45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 10W-15W...AND FROM
7S-1N BETWEEN 18W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 2021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N83W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT RETURN SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING
CONVECTION. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH INLAND S TEXAS IN 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
18N60W TO PUERTO RICO AT 18N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
10N-14N E OF 63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NOTED OVER TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27N75W MOVING
EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N33W
TO 26N35W 22N40W 19N50W DISSIPATING TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N36W TO 14N46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N25W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W. AN UPPER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF 45W WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICS AT 7N34W. EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E
WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO MOVE S OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BE ALONG 31N54W TO
28N60W TO 30N65W. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF
30N WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/MRF





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