[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N08W TO THE EQUATOR AT 28W
CONTINUING SW AND INLAND SOUTH AMERICA AT 04S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N11W TO 04N18W TO 02N25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TRAILING ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS WASHING OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST
WATERS...BUT IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. SOME UPPER
MOISTURE IS JUST BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. THIN CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. UPPER DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR 27N87W.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
ACCOMPANIED BY TOWERING CUMULUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AT 12N53W...RIDGING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST WINDWARDS TO NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE RACING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AT THE LOW LEVELS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINING EAST NORTHEAST TRADES AT 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT 20 TO
25 KT ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA. EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY THE TRADES WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS ALONG A BAND EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN CONTINUING INLAND BELIZE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST E
OF NORTH FLORIDA WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED ALONG A NARROW BAND
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N WHERE THE MOISTURE FANS OUT
AS IT CONTINUES EAST AND SHOULD SOON MOVE OVER BERMUDA. A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 50W AND 35W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS
BECOMING BROAD AS IT DISSIPATES FROM 32N41W TO NEAR
26N60W...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ENHANCED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG 32N37W TO 27N44W. UPPER MOISTURE FROM THIS
CONVECTION SPREADS EAST MERGING WITH ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 23N EXTENDING EAST TO OVER THE
NORTHWEST AFRICAN COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION ALONG 32N12W TO 17N28W. DRY UPPER AIR IS
INDICATED OVER THE TROPICS FROM 10N TO 23N E OF BAHAMAS TO OVER
AFRICA AT 16W. A PERSISTENT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 26N46W TO 15N53W...BUT ITS NOT CERTAIN IF EXTENDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE NEAR 24N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NELSON





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