[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
ALONG 1N20W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR
4N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 14W AND 24W... FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W...
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES INTO THE
NE GULF SUPPORTING AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
IS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 31N83W 28N86W 26N89W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALOFT...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...SHOWERS DOT THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
AREAS SW OF HAITI FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W AND S OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 66W AND
73W. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SHOWERS FOR BELIZE... GUATEMALA...
WESTERN HONDURAS... AND WESTERN PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR REGION FROM 32N77W TO 28N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 57W WITH A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS N OF 23N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS N OF THE AREA
NEAR 37N42W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ENTERING OUR
REGION NEAR 34N44W BECOMING DISSIPATING NEAR 30N48W TO 29N53W
WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N57W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TO
THE S OF THIS SYSTEM LAY A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 48W FROM 16N-25N. THE SECOND TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 54W FROM 14N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
80-130 NM E OF EACH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 44W IS DOMINATED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/GARCIA





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