[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 6N10W 3N18W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 26W CONTINUING SW AND INLAND SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
LIBERIA BETWEEN 9W AND THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE FROM 8N9W TO 4N19W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 2N21W TO 3N26W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM 2.5N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NE GULF INTO THE W ATLC
TRAILING ACROSS THE GULF FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT AT 17/0300 UTC IS BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES NE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
27N89W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N86W TO
25N90W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
WEAK 1025 MB HIGH IS N OF THE FRONT OFF THE ALABAMA COAST GIVING
THE NW GULF SE RETURN FLOW WHICH BANKING LOW CLOUDS INLAND OVER
TEXAS. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS E OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE LATER THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS OF THE SE CONUS/N GULF THROUGH FRI
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE GULF ON
SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N54W GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S TO SW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
ENE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 65W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE SW HAITI TO NE HONDURAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE W
ATLC W OF 72W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC
ENTERING THE REGION AT 17/0300 UTC NEAR 32N77W TO NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 35W-60W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W TO 29N45W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 26N56W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N39W ALONG 27N45W TO 23N50W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 27N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. DRY UPPER AIR IS OVER THE
TROPICS FROM 10N-24N E OF BAHAMAS TO OVER AFRICA. HOWEVER...A
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 44W-56W ANALYZED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N46W TO 18N49W AND A SECOND
FROM 20N54W TO 16N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH TROUGH AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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