[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N9W...WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 6W12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS.


ALONG 06N10W 02N20W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND LYING OVER THE NE COASTLINE OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN
19W-25W NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 4N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN 17W-28W ABOUT 180 NM S OF THE
ITCZ. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE BISECTS THE
ITCZ S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING N-NE TO 2N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...WITH A LONG WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO ENTER THE NW GULF. THIS
FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING CONVERGENCE IN THE FAR N
CENTRAL BASIN...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE QUICKLY
MOVING INLAND BETWEEN 85W-95W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS
BETWEEN EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN IS INDUCING A FAIRLY
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN...GENERATING
ESE 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-93W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE CONTINUES TO ENTER THE BASIN...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
THE LONG WAVE WILL PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TURNING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR COLOMBIA. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NEARLY STNRY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW AND WESTERN ATLC. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE THIS FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 32N65W TO 26N68W. SCATTRED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. FARTHER EAST IN
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC....A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR 32N51W WITH A NEAR
STNRY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 25N40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
WITHIN 170 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WITHIN THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION...ESE WINDS FROM 20 KT UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE
INFERRED. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ON TOP OF THE 1012 MB LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER NEAR THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY
EXPECT CONVECTION TO LINGER ALONG THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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