[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081817 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 08 2011

...CORRECTED ATLC PORTION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N10W 02N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W AND LYING OVER THE NE COASTLINE OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 19W-25W
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 4N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN 17W-28W ABOUT 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ. THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE BISECTS THE ITCZ S OF
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45
NM OF THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING N-NE TO 2N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING MAINLY DOMINATES THE GULF AT THIS TIME. STRONGER
SELY WINDS OF 15-25 KT ARE FOUND IN MID-EASTERN PART OF THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. MOST OF THE GULF
IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LIE IN THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE GULF BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL STILL BE UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 20-25
KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF HAITI. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO BANKING
ARE ALONG THE COSTA RICAN AND PANAMA COASTS. EXPECT THE SAME
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...CORRECTED
A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N51W 1013 MB IS BEING ENHANCED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N50W TO 25N50W IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT
24 HOURS AS NEW SURFACE LOW FORMS N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N54W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM
NE OF THE SURFACE LOW. DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/JA





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