[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N10W 02N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W AND LYING OVER THE NE COASTLINE OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 19W-25W
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 4N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN 17W-28W ABOUT 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ. THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE BISECTS THE ITCZ S OF
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATERRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45
NM OF THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING N-NE TO 2N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING MAINLY DOMINATES THE GULF AT THIS TIME. STRONGER
SRLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT ARE FOUND IN MID-EASTERN PART OF THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. MOST OF THE GULF
IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LIE IN THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE GULF BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL STILL BE UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 20-25
KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMAINATES THE REGION
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF HAITI. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO BANKING
ARE ALONG THE COSTA RICAN AND PANAMA COASTS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO 32N72W TO A BASE OVER CUBA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. FARTHER EAST...A
1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N53W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 18N61W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DISPLACED EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND CUT-OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 31N55W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM
23N-34N BETWEEN 35W-51W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N35W TO 16N18W. A DEEP LAYER LOW IS
CENTERED SE OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA WITH A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 35N19W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF 32N ALONG 32N11W TO
THE EASTERNMOST CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/JA




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