[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE IVORY COAST...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 18W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 5S39W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 21W AND
24W...FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 3S BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N
TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA WITH A RIDGE THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA AND GOES BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT REACHES RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO 14N IN NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W...IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 24N67W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF 32N70W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 32N70W TO 28N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR RUM CAY AND LONG
ISLAND. ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. A WELL-DEVELOPED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N52W. A SECOND SUCH
CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 28N46W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N49W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
25N51W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 38W
AND 52W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST
OF 30W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CENTERS
IN THE WHOLE AREA. A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 34N15W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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