[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
17W...TO 2S30W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N8W 1S26W 3S40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA WITH A RIDGE THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA AND GOES BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA BEYOND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 25N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REACHES RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
BEYOND WESTERN CUBA...INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
FROM 8N IN PANAMA TO 13N IN NICARAGUA. THIS AREA IS NEAR
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF
70W...IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED LOW AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND MOVING TO THE SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 25N71W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 31N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 31N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A WELL-DEVELOPED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N49W. A SECOND SUCH
CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N47W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N51W TO 25N48W 20N50W AND
17N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W
AND 56W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 6N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CENTERS IN THE
WHOLE AREA. A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 35N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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