[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 34W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 5S50W. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF THE IVORY
COAST FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 5W AND 6W...FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN
11W AND 14W...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...FROM 1S TO 4S
IN BRAZIL BETWEEN 32W AND 40W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 41W
AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST
OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ORGANIZING ITSELF IN THE U.S.A. MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ALSO IS GETTING ORGANIZED IN TEXAS.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH EAST TEXAS...CUTTING ACROSS
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI BARELY INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE U.S.A. FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
APPEARS TO BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK ACCORDING TO THE PRESSURE
ANALYSIS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W...IN
CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA...AND ARE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM 22N84W TO 16N80W
TO 16N70W TO THE MONA PASSAGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS TO 60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N66W TO 26N68W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A DEEP LAYER
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 24N47W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N38W.
OTHER BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND
40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N40W TO 17N47W. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER IS NEAR 35N12W IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N
TO THE EAST OF 30W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS FROM 20N
TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 35N12W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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