[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W THEN INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 04S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 19W-23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE AXIS ALONG COASTAL NE BRAZIL FROM
03S48W TO 05N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/1500 UTC HAS
EMERGED OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND EXTENDS FROM SABINE LAKE
AND PASS NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS SW TO SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI
NEAR BAFFIN BAY. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN AREAS OF TSTMS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SCATTERED
TSTMS IS ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N93W TO THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR VERMILION BAY. WEST OF THE FRONT...STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND LOCATES IN THE W ATLC
BY EARLY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SURFACE...
EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE DUE TO A
MARGINALLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHER VALUES UP TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. AN EARLIER 05/1104 WINDSAT PASS CAPTURED THESE
STRONGER WINDS AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOUND
MOSTLY OVER SE PORTIONS S OF 16N E OF 71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
NEAR 45N58W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW FROM THE HIGH THROUGH
32N72W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
20 TO 30 KT WERE NOTED ON EARLIER MORNING WINDSAT AND ASCAT
PASSES BETWEEN 05/1200 UTC AND 05/1430 UTC. THIS WIND FIELD
LOCATES NW OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W TO 31N56W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 28N60W TO 25N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. THIS
BOUNDARY IS LARGELY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 62W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N
BETWEEN 52W-60W. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
ARE IMPACTING THE EASTERN ATLC. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 24N32W TO 30N43W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED OFF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA NEAR 38N15W AND IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
FROM 31N13W TO 26N21W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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