[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 1N20W TO
1S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 29W-40W...AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO S OF TAMPICO
MEXICO ALONG 24N96W 20N97W 20N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 87W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 92W-96W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. 15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS MOVING SE
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO WEAKEN TO 15-20
KT N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL WITH 20 KT
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 70W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH RAIN. ALSO EXPECT TRADEWINDS TO ADVECT MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF S FLORIDA FROM
BOCA RATON TO STUART MOVING W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W TO 26N58W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 52W-58W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N44W TO 25N30W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-40W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC
TROUGH. EXPECT A NEW FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT REMAIN STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN...WHILE THE E ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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