[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM THE
NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W...CONTINUING SW ALONG 3N20W
EQ30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS ACROSS THE GULF ARE INDICATING A SE WIND
COMPONENT RANGING FROM LIGHT/GENTLE TO MODERATE/STRONG ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RATHER
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BASIN.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN
85W-89W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NE AT ABOUT 15 KT AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF 85W. CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
ARE CURRENTLY FAIR. NEVERTHELESS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
SETTING UP IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST TODAY...GENERATING MODERATE-STRONG
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING GALE
FORCE CRITERIA IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 14N66W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
REVEALED A SHARP CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED
WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 16N.
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE AXIS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE NE BASIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS
NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
EVENING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
GENTLE-MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS TURNING AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS IN
COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH MOVES EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING.
THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE REACHES DOWN TO OUR
WESTERN DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING GUSTY NE WINDS 20-25 KT N OF
23N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N52W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 31N56W EXTENDING SW
ALONG 29N60W 25N63W TO 22N67W. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES INDICATED NE
WINDS 20-25 KT WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 24N. THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS DISPLACED FARTHER EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK
SITTING ON TOP OF IT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWED STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET STREAK SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-32N
BETWEEN 55W-63W. THIS AREA OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL START MOVING EASTWARD WITH A
MORE PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AROUND THE AXIS...AND BECOMING A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N40W TO 25N33W. OTHER THAN
THE WIND CURVATURE AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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