[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST
OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W...S-WESTWARD ALONG 1N20W EQ30W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 32W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS ACROSS THE GULF ARE INDICATING A SE WIND
COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A REMNANT
CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N90W TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND 22N86W. THIS AXIS
SEPARATES LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS W OF THE AXIS FROM MODERATE/STRONG
WINDS E OF THE AXIS N OF 25N. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 130 NM E OF THE
AXIS N OF 26N. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NE AT ABOUT 15 KT
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF 86W. CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY FAIR. NEVERTHELESS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS SETTING UP IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SAT GENERATING
MODERATE-STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
REACHING GALE FORCE CRITERIA IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITHIN
20 NM ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS THAT ENTERS THE BASIN THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W EXTENDING SE TO 17N84W...THEN IT
CONTINUES NE TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND 20N74W. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN...ANALYZED FROM THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 12N66W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
S OF 16N. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THIS EVENING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN. GENTLE-MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TURNING AROUND THE COASTAL
WATERS IN COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 1042 MB HIGH MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. THE
FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE REACHES DOWN TO OUR
WESTERN DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING GUSTY NE WINDS 20-30 KT N OF
23N W OF 69W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N52W BECOMING STNRY NEAR 30N57W TO 22N70W. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS DEFINED AND IT CURRENTLY LACKS OF NEARBY
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...EARLIER ASCAT PASSES INDICATED NE WINDS
20-25 KT WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 24N. A FAIRLY
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET IS E OF THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-31N
BETWEEN 57W-63W. THIS AREA OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FRONT WILL START MOVING EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH A
MORE PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AROUND THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N40W TO 23N32W. OTHER THAN
THE WIND CURVATURE AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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