[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 1N20W TO EQ30W TO
NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER LIBERIA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 8W-11W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 28W-40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER NE
BRAZIL FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA N OF 30N MOVING E...MOSTLY
DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FURTHER S...A SHEARLINE EXTENDS
FROM S LOUISIANA TO W CUBA ALONG 29N91W 25N87W 23N83W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF WITHIN 200 NM NE OF THE
SHEARLINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 85W-89W. 20-25 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE
E GULF AND FLORIDA NE OF THE SHEARLINE...WHILE 10 KT E TO SE
WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF SW OF THE SHEARLINE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING WESTERLY WINDS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 28N SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD IS N OF 28N. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SHEARLINE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO HAVE SE SURFACE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO JAMAICA ALONG
21N87W 17N84W 18N77W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE SHEARLINE. 20 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE NE OF THE
SHEARLINE...WHILE 10-15 KT E WINDS ARE SW OF THE SHEAR LINE. A
1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. A RELATIVELY
SLACK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS...
HOWEVER... 20-25 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA. EXPECT...THE SHEARLINE TO
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND RAIN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM FORT
PIERCE TO DAYTONA BEACH MOVING W. A CLOUD LINE  WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS CONTINUES SE TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N77W. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ACCOMPANIED WITH 20-25 KT EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 59W-65W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
N OF 23N. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
25N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-30W
SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC TROUGH. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC FRONT
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC TROUGH TO ALSO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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