[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE
COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 02N20W TO 01N30W CONTINUING S OF
THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W
AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W AND 38W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W.




****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA

ERE THERMAL LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGHER
PRES EXISTS TO THE NE CREATING A TIGHT GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES NE OF THE
AREA RETREATS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE CONUS
AND INTO MARITIME CANADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT EXITS S OF THIS HIGH AND INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH 20-30 KT WINDS OCCURRING E OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND NE OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W
TO JUST NE OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
MAINLY N OF 24N. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER SEA SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
LESS DEFINED ON SAT DISSIPATING BY SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NEXT COLD FRERE THERMAL LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGHER
PRES EXISTS TO THE NE CREATING A TIGHT GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES NE OF THE
AREA RETREATS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE CONUS
AND INTO MARITIME CANADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT EXITS S OF THIS HIGH AND INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH 20-30 KT WINDS OCCURRING E OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND NE OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W
TO JUST NE OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
MAINLY N OF 24N. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER SEA SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
LESS DEFINED ON SAT DISSIPATING BY SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
NW PORTION FROM THE CONUS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OFF THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM NEAR 21N63W TO 18N61W JUST E OF BARBUDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH AND 90-120 NM
NE OF THE TROUGH.

FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO
27N36W AND WAS CAPTURED NICELY BY A 1256Z ASCAT PASS WHICH
INDICATED ONLY 5-15 KT WINDS. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS
FORMED NEAR 05N31W WITH A RIDGE AXIS COVERING THE AREA ALONG
05/06N. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE SW
SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


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