[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 5N8W TO 2N20W TO 2N30W TO
EQ40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER LIBERIA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 7W-9W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 21W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE E GULF WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 84W-87W. 15-25 KT
SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA N OF THE FRONT.
10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING NW WINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
S OF 28N SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD IS N OF 28N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR...THE THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE BUT THE FRONT TO
REMAIN FROM LOUISIANA TO W CUBA WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO S
OF CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. A RELATIVELY SLACK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA... WITH 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W MOVING
W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW TO W WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 22N70W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 62W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1022
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N49W. A 1018 MB LOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW TO 27N35W 22N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM E OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE W
ATLANTIC FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-40W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC
FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS...
WHILE THE E ATLANTIC FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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