[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0525 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT
5N10W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-5N
BETWEEN 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE BASIN THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AT SURFACE...LIGHT TO FRESH ESE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION...BECOMING 20-30 KT E OF 90W. A DISSIPATING 1013 MB
LOW LINGERS AROUND 27N92W PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 25N88W 22N86W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 140 NM EAST OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT THE LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 9Z FRI WHILE DRIFTING NW. THE
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. AT SURFACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN ALONG THE WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN...FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO
JAMAICA...THEN NE TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND 20N74W.
THESE SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 64W-68W. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING NE WINDS 15-25 KT OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 67W. A
NEARLY STNRY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W
EXTENDING SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
ALONG 25N65W 20N74W. THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER
EAST...A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N37W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 25N35W TO 22N40W.
ASIDE THE CYCLONIC WIND TURN AROUND THE LOW...THIS SYSTEM HAS
LOST ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO LINGER NEAR THE
SAME AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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