[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 01N27W TO
03N33W TO S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 22W AND FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 25W
AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM
NEAR TAMPA BAY TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A STATIONARY
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
EXTENDING FROM 1016 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N91W TO THE WESTERN TIP
OF CUBA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING WITH SURFACE PRESSURES
RISING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NE OF
THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
THE YUCATAN COAST NEAR 22N91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING
IN ITS VICINITY. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRES RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS THROUGH FRI.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE E AND CENTRAL
GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF SAT MORNING...MOVING OFF THE
TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM THE FAR WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA JUST S OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND CONTINUING E-SE TO THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
CUBA WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE ATLC BUILDS IN FROM THE NE.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VERY DRY AIR EXISTS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT IN THE E
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND TO
THE E IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY ITS UPPER LEVEL COUNTERPART REACHING FROM
NEAR BARBUDA SW TO JUST N OF THE CENTRAL VENEZUELAN COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS N OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
AND SUBSIDE BEGINNING SUN AS THE HIGH NE OF THE AREA RETREATS
AND WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N67W EXTENDING SW
INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210-300 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT
AS STRONG HIGH PRES E OF THE CAROLINAS BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE N. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT GENERATED BY THIS
BUILDING HIGH WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FRI AND SAT
WEAKENING SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E AND PRESSURES
FALL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
SUN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. 1018 MB LOW PRES IS STATIONARY NEAR
30N37W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 26N36W
TO 17N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-180 NM OF
THE FRONT AND LOW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES. BROAD UPPER
RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 06N03E WESTWARD ALONG 06/07N.
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY




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