[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM
16N26W TO 8N29W MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS
WELL WEST FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH DISCUSSION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THE WAVE AXIS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES E OF CURRENT
POSITION. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ON THE 00
UTC ANALYSIS TO REPOSITION THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 18N50W TO
11N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE MOVES AHEAD OF A SURGE OF A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED
FROM 22N84W TO 16N88W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IN EMBEDDED
IN A BROAD REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW 20-25 KT IS OBSERVED IN THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
W OF 77W ALSO AFFECTING INLAND PORTIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WNW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ AXIS
ENTERS THE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W CONTINUING
SW ALONG 9N20W TO 10N27W...REAPPEARING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
8N31W CONTINUING SW ALONG 5N41W TO THE EXTREME NE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF 24W FROM 8N-18N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. ISOLATED
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CONVECTION LINGERS OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE GULF THIS EVENING
AS A AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE SLOWLY MOVES E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF...BEING PUSHED BY THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WOBBLING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES
OF THE DAY SHOWED SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100/130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
28N87W TO 22N96W. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN GUSTY SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE
FAR SE GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA...
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE SE GULF. FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW BASIN. CONSEQUENTLY...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF 77W ALSO AFFECTING INLAND
PORTIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL LINGER IN THE
WSW CARIBBEAN AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SETTLES DOWN/SOUTH INTO THE
FAR SW BASIN. WIDE SPREAD SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE E OF 70W SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED N OF THE COLOMBIA
COAST AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NE OF
HISPANIOLA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SPREADING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
BASIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS
SEABOARD...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE FAR W ATLC...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS W OF 75W N OF 25N.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NNE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N68W. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W. A
BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC E OF 47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


WWWW
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