[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N8W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 3N14W 2N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 27W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S32W...THEN CROSSING
BACK NEAR 40W TO 1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
80 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-37W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTS REMAIN WITHIN 60 NM INLAND ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS W OF 95W N OF 22N ALONG THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS WELL
AS THE NE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-88W. AN
EARLIER WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A WEAK WIND SHIFT
IN THIS AREA...WHICH MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN OTHERWISE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN.
OTHER THAN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE BASIN WITH
MAINLY WSW FLOW ALOFT. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THIS
REGION...TURNING NE W OF 77W. THIS TURNING IS GENERATING BANDS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN W
OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 16N80W TO A
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W TO INDICATE THE
WIND SHIFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTICED ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA BLOWING UP TO 25 KT WITHIN 130 NM BETWEEN 71W-74W. NO
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
OTHERWISE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAIRLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAK IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN. AS OF SAT 1800 UTC...THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N34W 28N50W 24N65W...WHERE
IT BECOMES A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR
AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT NE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WEST OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE FAR WEST ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS COVERED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A WEAK
1021 MB HIGH S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 27N40W MAINTAINING
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS HALF OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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