[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 3N8W 5N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W
CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S35W CROSSING BACK NEAR 47W
TO 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 100 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-38W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ALABAMA
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY LEAVING MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH HAS
FORMED ACROSS SRN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO SUPPORTED BY A NARROW
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS
TO WRN TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
W OF 95W N OF 23N ALONG THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS WELL AS THE FAR SE CORNER OVER
S FLORIDA. AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-88W. A RECENT WINDSAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS
FORMED IN THIS AREA WHICH MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A VERY WEAK AND
SPATIALLY SMALL UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN OTHERWISE ZONAL WLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AS A
MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE BASIN WITH MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW
ALOFT. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. NELY TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA BROADLY TURNING MORE NLY W OF 75W. A
WEAKENING SHEAR LINE IS NOTED ACROSS FAR WRN CUBA SUPPORTING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 74W-77W. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS COVERS THE FAR W
ATLC TODAY. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TO THE E SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT SPREADING FROM 32N38W TO 30N47W BECOMING STATIONARY
TO 27N59W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND WRN
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR
AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS TO EITHER
SIDE OF THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT SPREADS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO
NEAR 34N45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS
COVERED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH S OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 26N45W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THIS HALF OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
N OF BRAZIL NEAR 7N52W TOWARDS THE AZORES ISLANDS. A NARROW
UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM PORTUGAL TO THE CANARY
AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...BUT IT IS NOT SUPPORTING ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CURRENTLY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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