[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160506
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N11W TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO EQ50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-2N BETWEEN 25W-34W...
AND FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 30N90W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS NOTED OVER THE GULF AROUND THE HIGH. A 1017 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER E TEXAS E OF 98W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... 70 KT SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO E TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH TO NE MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N35W TO 27N50W TO 24N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO E CUBA
NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT.
A 1023 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N37W
MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N W OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF
10N E OF 30W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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