[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081713
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 04N30W TO
02N38W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 27W...AND
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
WINDS OVER THE NE GULF VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT AS THE FRONT PASSES...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE NOTED OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO...WHERE A 1006 MB LOW
PRES AREA WAS ANALYZED JUST INLAND AT 12Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
GULF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY...CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST GULF
BY LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST...LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER S TEXAS
TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN MIGRATE NE TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW AS A WARM FRONT. BY EARLY
SUN...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD
OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH 15 TO
20 KT NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
A STALLED AND WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HAITI TO N
OF JAMAICA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE
NE. ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH IS
KEEPING SKIES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF 15 TO 20 KT E TO SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM S OF
PUERTO RICO TO NE COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO PERSIST OVER
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
EXPECT TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 26N63W...THEN STATIONARY
THROUGH NORTHERN HAITI. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH N OF 30N ALONG 56W. A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N
AS FAR EAST AS 50W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 30N W OF 70W WILL REACH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS FROM BERMUDA TO S
FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN. THE SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT FURTHER E BY
MON...REACHING FROM 31N47W TO NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THEN
DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.  FURTHER EAST...BROAD 1028 SURFACE HIGH
PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W. ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT TRADE
WINDS S OF THE HIGH PRES...MAINLY E OF 45W. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE ITCZ WHERE
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE
STRONGER TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN





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