[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 5N26W
2N36W 5N47W 4N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 16W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 37W-45W...AND FROM EQ-6N
BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1013 MB HIGH N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22N90W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE
AROUND THE RIDGE WITH SOME 25 KT WLY WINDS NOTED IN THE NE
PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE THE ERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS PROVIDING NELY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. A
CURRENTLY DRY COLD FRONT LINES THE ENTIRE GULF COAST FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SRN TEXAS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC. SWLY RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE COASTLINE EARLY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
N OF JAMAICA TO N OF HONDURAS ALONG 20N75W 19N81W 16N88W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION OUT ACROSS THE WRN ATLC CONTINUING TO THE
N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY
MAINLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS NRN
HISPANIOLA AND OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA E OF 84W AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF ERN BRAZIL. SOME PATCHES OF
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS SWLY FLOW ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING
AS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W CONTINUING
SW ALONG 26N64W 22N70W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY WAY OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FARTHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 150 NM AND 300 NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEAR
28N61W CONTINUING TO N HISPANIOLA WHICH SUPPORTS THE COLD
FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM N OF
ERN BRAZIL NEAR 6N47W ALONG 19N55W 41N38W. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED N OF 30N W OF 80W WITHIN THE NEXT
6 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N34W PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W OF PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY AND CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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