[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM NRN LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W ALONG
3N26W 2N40W EQ49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 21W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-6N
BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1012 MB HIGH N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 23N90W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20
KTS ARE AROUND THE RIDGE WITH SOME 25 KT WLY WINDS NOTED IN THE
NE PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE THE ERN COAST OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS PROVIDING NELY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF.
EXPECT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF WITHIN
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND EXITING THE GULF REGION WITHIN 24 HOURS.
SWLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW GULF AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE COASTLINE EARLY SUNDAY WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO N OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OUT ACROSS THE WRN ATLC CONTINUING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY AIR
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA AND OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA E OF 80W
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N ERN BRAZIL. SOME PATCHES
OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS SWLY FLOW ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING
AS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N57W CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N64W 20N74W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS FROM 24N-27N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FARTHER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM AND 240 NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEAR 30N70W CONTINUING
DOWN 70W WHICH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM N OF ERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N45W TO NEAR
19N54W TO 42N41W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FORM
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED N OF 30N W OF 80W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N34W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM W OF PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net