[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 06N09W TO 02N30W TO
01N40W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO S TEXAS ALONG 27N80W 25N90W 27N97W. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO W OF 94W N OF 22N. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO DIP TO S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT. ALSO EXPECT A 1002 MB LOW TO FORM OVER S
TEXAS AND MOVE TO THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM HAITI TO JAMAICA ALONG 20N72W 18N77W. NO PRECIPITATION IS
NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS N OF THE FRONT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA ...AND
COSTA RICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 76W-84W DUE TO LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND FROM COSTA RICA TO PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 30N
BETWEEN 65W-77W. FURTHER E...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 31N57W TO HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
15 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N32W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF
30W. EXPECT THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO
MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE OTHER FRONT REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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