[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NRN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
7N11W CONTINUING WWD ALONG 4N23W 6N40W 1N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 18W-22W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
24W-32W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W FROM 4N-10N
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 36W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE AT 31N82W ALONG 27N85W 25N89W
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
21N93W 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND
THE FRONT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD...250 NM
BEHIND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WHICH IS
PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT. NE WINDS OF
20-25 KTS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS TO
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FAR NW...AND FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE
NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE WHILE THE
STATIONARY PORTION BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AS
A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS NRN SOUTH
AMERICA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE NELY FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N
OF 15W E OF 75W MOST LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE WIND SPEED
CONVERGENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W
ATLC ALONG 70W SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N71W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN
FLORIDA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST OFF THE NE COAST N
OF 27N W OF 79W. A WIDESPREAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE N CENTRAL ATLC. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N25W CONTINUING ALONG 26N29W 23N37W
BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 21N44W 19N49W...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE
ALONG 17N55W 13N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. A SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN
30W-40W AND SHOULD REACH IT WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM W OF PORTUGAL
ACROSS THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTING A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE S OF PORTUGAL PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ERN TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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