[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N9W 4N13W 5N22W 3N31W 5N38W 4N43W
4N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 11N41W
TO 3N39W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 42W-45W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 5W-15W WITH
LARGER CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER E CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO JUST N OF TAMPA INTO THE
GULF TO 25N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N92W TO
INLAND OVER S MEXICO JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A
SECOND PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE AND WITHIN 120 NM NW
OF THE COLD FRONT. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY COVER THE
AREA S OF 24N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT AND INLAND OVER MEXICO. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING N OF THE FRONT COVERING THE SE CONUS
AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. REMNANT LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING W ACROSS
THE AREA FROM 14N-18N E OF 80W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE E CONUS MOVING INTO THE NW
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N77W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
W OF 55W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 25N69W AND A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM SW OF BERMUDA NEAR
28N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N23W EXTENDING ALONG
27N27W TO 24N37W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N47W THEN
DISSIPATES ALONG 17N56W TO 14N59W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 2N34W ALONG 20N30W THEN
NE TO BEYOND 32N17W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 175/200
NM OF LINE FROM 23N38W TO 32N25W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER
MOROCCO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net