[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 4N30W 6N40W 2N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 32W-42W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 100 NM SOUTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF FROM
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ALONG 25N90W. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE LAST 6-9 HRS. HOWEVER...AS OF
1500 UTC...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN DRIFTING
EASTWARD AND SO IT IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT N OF 28N. THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS PROVIDING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE BASIN. NORTH WINDS 15-30 KT ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT N
OF 22N. SSE WINDS 10-15 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50
NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HR EXPECT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BEND/DRIFT SE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE A GREAT
PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING 15-25 KT SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW N OF 14N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES N OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-79W.
WITHIN THIS REGION...WIND SURGES EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE ARE
GENERATING  SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA
PASSAGE N OF 16N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N
OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 40 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 63W-70W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GIVING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN
22W-60W. EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...
SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AZORES
ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N26W TO 24N36W...WHERE IT BECOMES A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N50W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 35
NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 80
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVECTION.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THESE WILL INTRODUCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR NOW...SURFACE RIDGING IS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N70W
PROVIDING ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW W OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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