[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 28W...TO 1S37W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N10W 2N23W 3S34W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN BRAZIL AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
2S TO 5S BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 1S36W 1N45W 3N43W 4N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH WEST
TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM TEXAS TO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOME HAZE HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WATERS MONDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE OBSERVED TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY...AND MOST
OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES
FROM 12N60W TO 13N70W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
16N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT
EVERYWHERE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 74W/75W...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL
COLOMBIA. THE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO
OR SO FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING
WITH TIME. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE
TO PUSH THE CLOUDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 46W. THIS NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
RELATED TO THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N51W TO A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N65W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NEAR 28N80W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR
28N38W. THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ON THE SURFACE
MAP IS NEAR 24N41W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT STARTS NEAR 28N43W...
CURVING THROUGH 29N38W TO 26N35W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 26N35W TO 18N38W AND 12N44W. A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 12N44W TO 8N55W...CUTTING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA...AND ENDING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ISLA LOS ROQUES
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N66W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W NEAR THE CYCLONIC FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N22W TO 19N27W TO 10N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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