[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 06N10W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THEN
WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 39W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
03S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N
BETWEEN 11W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N85W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD ALONG
85W AND ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WATER
VAPOR INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED
ON RECENT BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NW GULF WATERS BY EARLY
MONDAY AND INTRODUCE STRONG N-NE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION N OF 30N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 15N W OF
75W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC
NEAR 28N60W AND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...THE STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO
ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD PROVIDING FOR AREAS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATES MOST OF
THE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACTIVITY REMAINS S OF 15N AS A
SHEARLINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS TRINIDAD TO 11N66W. THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY TRAILS WESTWARD TO 13N73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE ABC ISLANDS THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N60W
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA W OF
50W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...
LARGELY CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES...IS CENTERED NEAR 27N37W AND
SUPPORTS A COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN 1009 MB CENTER NEAR 26N37W.
THIS LOW REMAINS PARTIALLY OCCLUDED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 20N37W
TO 11N47W. THE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WEST
OF 47W AND THE BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AS A SHEARLINE EXTENDING
WESTWARD ALONG 10N TO TRINIDAD AND INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 11N66W. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 27/1306 UTC
CAPTURED THIS SHEARLINE WITH 10 TO 15 KT E-NE FLOW SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND STRONGER 20 TO 25 KT NE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SHEARLINE. CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 23N BETWEEN 31W-42W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 32N23W TO 15N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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