[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
26W...TO 2S32W...2S36W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 5S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 4N11W...THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...2S35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE EAST OF 10W TO THE SOUTH OF AFRICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 3N39W 2N42W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 42W
AND 47W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N38W
5N42W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE AREAS OF RAIN/FOG/HAZE COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE
GRADUALLY...AND MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 30N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES
FROM SOUTHERN HAITI TO 13N70W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT
EVERYWHERE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 74W/75W...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL
COLOMBIA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA NEAR THE PANAMA BORDER...PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE
TO PUSH THE CLOUDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 46W. THIS NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
RELATED TO THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR
28N80W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 28N398W. THE 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ON THE SURFACE MAP IS NEAR 24N41W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT STARTS NEAR 26N44W...CURVING THROUGH 29N38W TO
26N35W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N35W TO 20N37W AND
13N43W. A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 13N43W TO
8N55W...CUTTING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND ENDING JUST
OFF THE COAST OF ISLA LOS ROQUES OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N66W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W NEAR THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 20N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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