[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN
8W-11W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 18W-30W. WIDELY

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG 30N PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT FOG IS OVER THE NW
GULF AND S TEXAS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 94W-98W. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH THICK FOG IS OVER THE NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 83W-90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
GULF ARE IN THE 60'S AND 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW
WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 25 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE THE SURFACE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. A BATCH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND VENEZUELA
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 60W-74W DUE TO A SHEAR LINE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR
18N90W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...SOME
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS... WITH THE TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N57W. A 1008
MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N40W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 21N37W 11N50W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO TO BEYOND 32N40W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 34W-41W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N39W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA











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