[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED FROM COAST OF LIBERIA AT 06N10W TO 02N20W TO
02N30W TO 00N37W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF
AXIS E OF 30W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF
AXIS W OF 30W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH PART OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION BRINGING IN FRESH SE BREEZE E OF 95W BUT
STRONGER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW W OF 95W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH LIGHT FOG OVER SE TEXAS COAST LIFTING AS LAND IS HEATED.
LARGE ELONGATED PATCH OF SEA FOG NOTED FROM 24N-290N BETWEEN
94W-98W DRIFTING NORTH.  LOW STRATIFIED CLOUDS AND FOG COVER THE
NE GULF E OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  REMAINDER OF GULF REMAIN
UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ENTIRE GULF SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 1010 MB CENTERED OVER NW COLOMBIA PRODUCING
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AGAINST ANDES MOUNTAIN WESTERN SLOPES WITH
LATENT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.   WEAK SHEAR LINE ALONG 13N E
OF GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHEAST COLOMBIA CAUSING FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE AND SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON.  ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINS A FRESH BREEZE N OF SHEAR LINE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION.  SHEAR LINE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN NEXT TWO DAYS WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED IN SOUTH
HALF OF BASIN.  WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT FURTHER EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB WITH BRAOD RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC
MAINTAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S BREEZE N OF 24N WHILE FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES COVER AREA S OF 24N INCLUDING THE
GREATER ANTILLES.  LOW PRESSURE 1009 MB AT 26N40W AND ATTENDANT
WEAK TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF RIDGE TIGHTEN GRADIENT
TO CAUSE THESE WINDS.  SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S AND SW FROM LOW
PRESSURE TO 11N50W THEN A SHEAR LINE EXTEND TO TRINIDAD AND INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF 25N TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD
ANTICYCLONE CREST ALONG 80W SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGE JUST AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 38W FORMS SMALL CYCLONIC VORTEX TO SUPPORT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES


WWWW
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