[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO
4N20W TO 3N20W TO 2N30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 7W-9W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-30W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN
30W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 4S-2S BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG 30N PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT FOG IS OVER THE NW
GULF AND S TEXAS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 94W-98W. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH THICK FOG IS OVER THE NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 83W-90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE
IN THE 60'S AND 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 25 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE THE SURFACE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. A BATCH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 82W-90W.
MORE SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N92W PRODUCING
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...SOME SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH THE
TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N58W. A 1008
MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N41W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 20N39W 16N42W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO TO BEYOND 32N40W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 36W-43W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N39W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA










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