[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N13W TO 02N25W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 29W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 08W-15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF S OF 25N. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF. ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN GULF WATERS N OF 24N
E OF 86W...WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT OR CALM THIS MORNING WITH
SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG OVER THE
WESTERN GULF W OF A LINE FROM 20N97W TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR VALPARAISO. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
GULF COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE E
PACIFIC THAT IS PROVIDING DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD LOCATED S OF 16N W
OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ADVECTING
N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 19N E OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE
OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE W ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO
20N. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N40W W-SW ALONG 27N50W 25N60W TO 28N79W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT TO
30N. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE U.S MID-ATLC COAST REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 42N06W TO 32N22W TO
23N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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