[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N08W 04N18W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 27W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
04N BETWEEN 06W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN
16W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHWARD TO BEYOND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RIDGE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF...
HOWEVER...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE NEAR 26N80W WESTWARD TO 27N87W. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG
NW OF A LINE FROM 19N96W TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE E
PACIFIC THAT IS PROVIDING DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AND ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM 12N-16N W
OF 80W. FARTHER EAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ADVECTING
N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 18N E OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE
OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE W ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA DIPPING TO 18N. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N42W
W-SW ALONG 28N50W 25N63W TO 28N76W WHERE THE FRONT DISSIPATES TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 43N08W TO 32N21W TO 24N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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