[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N9W ALONG
3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND INTO BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST S OF IVORY COAST FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 4W-7W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO
FLARED UP ALONG THE AXIS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN
30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND UP THE ERN CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE SE GULF. MAINLY SURFACE RIDGING
IS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW. HOWEVER...A WEAK
AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM JUST S OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA CONTINUING TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W.
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NE OF THE FRONT WHILE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS SE LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FOG STILL BEING REPORTED OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES. A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NW
GULF LATE FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF WRN CUBA.
THIS SETUP IS PROVIDING EXTREMELY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 17N. SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W WHERE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED WWD IN THE ELY TRADE WIND FLOW
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY TO THE N AROUND THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC CREATING AN
EVIDENT BOUNDARY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE NRN ISLANDS...AND THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO THE S. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THIS STRONG AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
SUPPORTING THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING W ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE
FAR WRN ATLC...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS TO THE E
BETWEEN 35W-70W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR
28N72W CONTINUING TO NEAR 29N77W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS REMAINS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY
24/0000 UTC. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 17W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE BROAD DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS EUROPE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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